Our current international map is composed of tectonic layers of bad: Trump and Putin and Xi and fascism at home and abroad including Europe, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), Netanyahu and the Religious Right, Hamas and Hezbollah. The future of democracy in the U.S., Iran, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Ukraine is caught in the middle between malevolent political actors.

Think what you want about the people over here and in Europe screaming non-stop about Israel for last 2+ years who, at best, say nothing about the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, and the January Massacre in Iran.

The war with Iran is the war that Sinwar started on October 7, setting off a chain reaction toppling the Iran backed Axis of Resistance in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria leaving Iran completely exposed.

No, Netanyahu is not pushing the U.S. into war with Iran. It is a dumb take because Trump does what Trump wants and Netanyahu is subservient to him. Israel does not have the pull in Washington that critics think it once had, but never really had. People who say this are suffering from Israel brain rot that has more than a little to do with classical anti-Semitic canards about Jewish power

Iran is a nation of 90,000,000 people brutalized by a religious fascist regime and a clerical-military political system that has rotted out the entire country from the inside. 30,000 people were murdered by the regime in the January Massacres in Iran, accelerating the path to war.

The IRI refused to accept zero enrichment of uranium as demanded by the Trump Administration. About possible regime calculations (reported at NYT): “Avoiding war is indeed a high priority, but not at any cost,” said Sasan Karimi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran who served as the deputy vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government. “At times, a political state — especially an ideological one — may weigh its place in history as heavily as, or even more heavily than, its immediate survival.”

These anti-war claims made by critics in the West may not be true: [1] increased economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime would “bring about a fundamental change in its foreign policy and/or spur defections in its ranks [2] Iran has extensive military capacities including proxy forces ready and able to draw the United States into a quagmire and wreak long-term havoc.

The statement from UK, France, and Germany speaks to the entire array of IRI malfeasance. France, Germany and the United Kingdom have consistently urged the Iranian regime to end Iran’s nuclear program, curb its ballistic missile program, refrain from its destabilizing activity in the region and our homelands, and to cease the appalling violence and repression against its own people. Oman and Qatar and also Saudi Arabia tried to get Trump to back down. IRI attacks against these and other Gulf States and also Cyprus re-enforce this point of view of Iran as a regional threat.

Regarding U.S. interest now: IRI is a U.S. enemy state going back to the hostage crisis and bombing or Marines in Beirut by Hezbollah, killing U.S. troops in Iraq by Iran backed militias. Question: U.S. is closing once and for all the Iran file and Iran nuke file at a moment after all redlines were crossed on October 7, the war in Gaza, after the IRI and its Axis have been critically weakened by Israel + another wave of mass domestic protests followed by and the January Massacre which will have left the IRI system forever marred. Russ Douthat observes, Trump attacks Iran now because it is weak, not strong.

George Will writes, “The at least 30,000 protesters who perished in Iran’s streets in early January did not die in vain.” This may not be true. It is still too early to tell whether or not they died or did not die in vain. At the end of the day, regime change might be an impossible reach and the Trump Administration will back down if the IRI does in fact bend on its nuclear, ballistic, and proxy ambitions. Democracy in Iran will depend on Iranian opposition to the IRI. Arash Azizi sheds more sober light here on a possible future.

After October 7 and the January Massacre, attention shifts. Iran is now firmly visible at the center of things.

There is no light at the end of this tunnel. Impossible to see right now –normalization of behavior and ties across the entire region is the only viable path forward, not endless war.